The short version: active listings across Collin County are running about 8% higher than this time last year, the median time to contract has stretched into the 25–40 day range, and well-priced homes are still moving — just not the way they did in 2022. Here is what that actually means if you’re buying, selling, or refinancing this spring.
Collin County market snapshot — May 2026
If you have been watching the local market for the last 24 months, the headline shift is choice. Active inventory across Collin County is hovering near 12,200 homes — roughly 8% higher than this time in 2025 and meaningfully above the long-term average for our area. New listings continue to outpace absorption modestly week over week, which is what’s quietly putting power back in buyers’ hands.
A few numbers worth keeping in your back pocket:
- County median list price: ~$500,000, down modestly year-over-year.
- Frisco median sale price: ~$647,000 over the trailing 30 days; pockets of west Frisco, Prosper, and Celina remain well above county-wide numbers.
- Days on market: running 25–40 days for the broad market and longer at higher price bands.
- New construction: resale-side competition remains the bigger factor for most buyers; builders are using incentive packages — closing-cost help, rate buydowns through preferred lenders, design-center credits — to clear standing inventory.
Translation: this is not a crash. It is a market that has finally relaxed enough to behave the way a normal real estate market behaves — homes priced correctly sell, homes priced to last year’s number sit, and buyers actually get to perform inspections and ask for repairs.
What this means if you are buying
You have negotiating room you did not have in 2021 or 2022. That is the whole story. Below-list offers are being accepted in price bands and submarkets that would have rejected them out of hand two summers ago, and concession requests — closing-cost credits, repair credits, or seller-paid temporary rate buydowns — are landing in a meaningful share of contracts.
The trade-off: pricing on financing is not collapsing in lockstep. The smart play right now is the same as it has always been at any inflection point — get fully underwritten before you write offers, structure them with concession asks the seller can actually use, and stay disciplined about which house earns your offer.
What this means if you are selling
Pricing is everything in this market. Homes that come on at last year’s comp and then chase the market down with reductions are spending 60-plus days listed and giving up real money on the back end. Homes that come on at a defensible 2026 number — supported by current closings in the same submarket — are still seeing showings the first weekend and offers within the first two to three weeks.
Two practical moves: get a current CMA from a Collin County agent who works your specific zip code (not just “Dallas-Fort Worth”), and run a pre-listing payment-shopper analysis so you understand which buyer profile your home actually fits. A $720,000 list price reads completely differently to a buyer carrying conventional financing than it does to one bringing a large down payment.
What this means if you are thinking about refinancing
Pricing changes daily and depends on credit profile, loan size, occupancy, property type, and a half-dozen other variables — which is exactly why I do not quote rates in a blog post. What I will say is that the conditions for a serious refinance review have improved meaningfully for some borrowers since the highs of late 2023 and 2024. If you closed in that window, a 10-minute conversation will tell you whether the math works for you. If it does, great. If it doesn’t, you’ll know — and you can stop wondering.
National rate environment and markets context
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady again at its most recent meeting and is currently pricing in only modest movement for the rest of the year. Mortgage pricing tracks the 10-year Treasury more than the Fed itself, and recent inflation data has come in slightly above expectations — which is the main reason long-term yields have held in the range they have been in for several months.
On the equity side, the S&P 500 pushed into new all-time-high territory this month, with technology and chip names leading. The bond market has told a different story: short-end yields have firmed, and the 10-year has drifted higher on stronger manufacturing and consumer-price prints. For households, the practical translation is that portfolios have had a constructive month while borrowing costs have stayed where they are. That mix tends to favor families with flexibility — the ability to make a move when the right house appears, rather than waiting for a rate that may or may not arrive.
Frequently asked questions
Is Collin County a buyer’s market right now?
It is closer to a balanced market with a buyer-friendly tilt. Inventory is up year-over-year, days on market have stretched, and concessions are common — but well-priced homes in desirable submarkets still see multiple-offer activity. The label “buyer’s market” applies most cleanly to homes that have been listed for 30+ days and to higher price bands.
Are home prices in Collin County falling?
County-wide values have softened modestly year-over-year — a single-digit-percentage decline depending on the source and the month — but performance varies meaningfully by city, by submarket, and by price band. Frisco, Prosper, and Celina each tell slightly different stories. A pricing decision for a specific home should be made with current comps for that specific submarket.
Where are mortgage rates headed in 2026?
Forecasting rates is a fool’s errand and not something I will do in writing. What I can tell you is that rates track the 10-year Treasury, which itself reacts to inflation data, Federal Reserve guidance, and broader economic conditions. The most useful posture for any household is to be ready to move when their personal math works — not to time a market that nobody times consistently.
Should I refinance now or wait?
It depends entirely on your current rate, your loan balance, how long you plan to stay in the home, and what closing costs would look like for you. If you closed in late 2023 or 2024, a 10-minute conversation will give you a clear answer. There is no universally right number — there is only the math for your specific situation.
Get a clear picture for your situation
If you would like a no-pressure read on what your numbers actually look like — purchase, sale, or refinance — I am happy to put it together for you.
Run a payment check Call 945-300-4644
Wayne Wallace, SVP of Mortgage Solutions at Homewood Mortgage, has spent 27 years helping North Texas families navigate home financing — through every type of market this region has produced. He lives and works in Collin County and writes a weekly briefing for clients, partners, and neighbors.
Homewood Mortgage, LLC · NMLS #294974 · Wayne Wallace NMLS #745186 · Licensed in Texas · This is not a commitment to lend. Equal Housing Opportunity. All loan products are subject to credit and property approval. Information herein is for educational purposes only and is not an offer to lend, investment advice, legal advice, or tax advice. Market data sourced from publicly available real estate and financial reporting and is subject to change.